It’s been barely a month since the world narrowly escaped a potential World War III, as Iran and Israel engaged in direct military confrontation for the first time in history. In a world where nations are deeply economically interlinked, this globalized reality may be the only reason the crisis didn’t spiral further out of control.
Modern conflicts tend not to last long — not because of diplomacy or deterrence alone, but because economic interdependence makes prolonged wars unsustainable. We've seen this pattern in recent years — from the skirmishes between Armenia and Azerbaijan to tensions between India and Pakistan, and now between Israel and Iran. But in regions like the Levant, where political instability undermines economic stakes, conflicts persist. As analysts observe at Brookings, the region often becomes a geopolitical chessboard, with powerful states backing non-state actors to serve their strategic interests. Amid this, local actors are often stripped of agency, with their own assets — particularly oil — falling outside their control.
As former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan once observed, “There is no long-term security without development; there is no long-term development without security; and there is no long-term security or development without respect for human rights.”
Shifting Power Equations
The Israel-Iran war has fundamentally altered regional dynamics. Once thought to have an impenetrable defense apparatus, Israel’s image has been bruised. According to military analysts cited by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), Iran’s deployment of precision-guided ballistic missiles and strategic diplomatic maneuvers marked a turning point in the region’s military equation.
Despite Israel’s stated objectives — backed by the United States — Tehran emerged not only defiant but arguably emboldened. It managed to breach Israel’s multi-layered air defense systems and also struck U.S. assets by targeting the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, in retaliation for U.S. bombings of Iranian nuclear sites. Early Pentagon assessments suggest Iran’s nuclear program suffered only minor setbacks, pushing back progress by just a few months — far from the “total obliteration” former President Donald Trump claimed.
Regime change in Iran did not materialize, nor was its nuclear infrastructure dismantled. Instead, the conflict appeared to bolster Iran’s position. While the U.S. bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities failed to achieve its objectives, and Iran’s retaliation against U.S. targets remained limited, the exchange ultimately offered Washington and Tel Aviv a face-saving off-ramp from a military strategy that had fallen short.
The New Diplomatic Landscape
This conflict also exposed a paradigm shift in Gulf state alignments. Despite long-standing U.S. ties, no Gulf nation allowed Washington to launch attacks on Iran from their soil. A growing discomfort with becoming battlegrounds in a U.S.-Iran showdown has led many Gulf states to quietly pursue limited engagement and de-escalation strategies with Tehran.
In fact, the rhetoric across West Asia leaned pro-Iranian — an unprecedented development. Diplomats from the United Nations privately acknowledged that backchannel communication between Iran and the United States, facilitated by third parties like Qatar, may have helped prevent the war from widening. Iran’s strikes on the U.S. base in Qatar were reportedly communicated to both Doha and Washington in advance, allowing for damage control and the potential for de-escalation.
These dynamics help explain why, in the immediate 12 hours following Iran’s strike on the U.S. base in Qatar, diplomatic momentum built swiftly for a cease-fire in Gaza — a likely bargaining chip in Tehran’s wider strategy. The war, albeit brief, highlighted how Iran may be leveraging its position in multiple regional theaters to exact concessions.
A Dangerous Precedent in Modern Warfare
One of the most alarming developments was Iran’s deployment of hypersonic ballistic missiles, a significant escalation in strike capabilities in response to Israeli airstrikes using F-35 stealth jets. This escalation brought warfare directly into urban civilian areas — from Tel Aviv to Tehran — shrinking the time window for countermeasures and increasing the risk of catastrophic miscalculation.
This dangerous new phase in warfare was also evident in the four-day Indo-Pak border conflict. With shrinking margins for diplomacy, the risk of rapid escalation is higher than ever. Dialogue and restraint are no longer optional; they are imperative for survival.
The Hidden Cost: Civilian Lives
Amid these strategic calculations, it's crucial not to lose sight of the people caught in the crossfire.
Urban warfare technologies — drones, hypersonic missiles, and smart bombs — now put entire populations at risk. In this war alone, Israeli strikes hit Iranian state TV while Iran bombed the Soroka Medical Center in Beersheba. Civilian deaths were reported on both sides.
According to Amnesty International, such attacks — which fail to distinguish between military and civilian targets — may constitute serious violations of international humanitarian law. Women and children were among the victims of Israeli airstrikes in Iran, while the disparity in civil defense infrastructure left Iranian civilians more vulnerable than their Israeli counterparts, who at least had access to state-run shelter systems.
Field briefings from the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) highlighted this disparity. Without early-warning systems or secure shelters, Iranian civilians faced higher fatality risks and the potential for mass displacement. These are not just numbers — they represent lives uprooted, families broken, and futures derailed.
The psychological toll is another long-term casualty. Repeated exposure to air raids and sirens can leave survivors, especially children, with lasting trauma. Human Rights Watch has documented how such conflicts often result in widespread post-traumatic stress disorder, with healthcare systems too fragile to respond.
The economic fallout has also been significant. In Iran, small businesses already strained by years of sanctions faced further ruin. In Israel, the ongoing Gaza conflict had already put 60,000 companies at risk of shutting down, according to a 2024 Times of Israel report. Iran’s retaliatory strikes on Haifa and the southern city of Eilat further strained the country’s economic backbone.
Hospitals — often the first to be overwhelmed — buckled under the pressure. Médecins Sans Frontières has repeatedly warned that even robust healthcare systems can collapse when urban warfare drains resources and damages infrastructure. The situation in Gaza stands as a grim testament.
This devastation is not unique to Iran and Israel. Across the region, war continues to deepen humanitarian suffering in ways that outlast the battles themselves. Nowhere is this more visible than in Gaza, where cease-fire talks have once again stalled. A worsening, human-induced famine is unfolding, with children dying of hunger amid an ongoing Israeli blockade on humanitarian aid. According to live updates from the Palestinian Health Ministry, the recent toll of malnutrition-related deaths stands at 175, including 93 children. The failure of the international community and institutions like the United Nations to mount an effective response underscores a troubling pattern: civilians, not combatants, continue to bear the brunt of modern war.
Ethical Questions That Remain
Finally, this war — like so many others — raises profound ethical concerns. Can a nation justify launching preemptive strikes based on a perceived threat?
Israel argued that Iran was close to acquiring nuclear weapons. Yet U.S. intelligence assessments released prior to the conflict indicated otherwise. What precedent does this set? If future wars are waged on speculative threats, what international norms, if any, will hold?
To end, we may borrow the words of Palestinian poet Mahmoud Darwish:
“The war will end.
The leaders will shake hands.
The old woman will keep waiting for her martyred son.
That girl will wait for her beloved husband...
I don’t know who sold our homeland
But I saw who paid the price.”
The war between Iran and Israel may be over — for now. But unless the world centers diplomacy, human security, and ethical restraint, the costs of the next war will be borne, once again, by those who can least afford it.
The guest author, Obaidurrahman Mirsab is a 2nd year student pursuing B.A. Multidisciplinary from Jamia Millia Islamia
Edited by: Aamna
Disclaimer: The views expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of TJR.
